Slide 4

In terms of life expectancy, Russia ranks among 162 countries for which this indicator was calculated, 109th for men (61 years)

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In terms of life expectancy, Russia ranks 74th among the 162 countries for which this indicator was calculated for women (73.9 years)

Slide 6

According to a UN Development Program report released in early October 2009, the country, whose population has declined by 6.6 million people since 1993, will lose 11 million by 2025.

According to available estimates, by 2050 the population of Russia will range from 83 to 115 million people.

In 2010, the population of the Russian Federation decreased by 820 thousand people

According to the 2002 Population Census, the population of Russia fell by 1.8 million from 1989 to 2002. Every minute 3 people are born in Russia, and 4 die.

Slide 7

Major threats to life

Slide 8

• Poor development of medicine.
• Alcoholic drinks. Every year in Russia about 40 thousand people die from alcohol poisoning
• Level of violence in society. Russia is one of the five “leaders” in terms of the number of murders per 100 thousand population.
• Road traffic accidents. About 35 thousand people die on Russian roads every year.
• Poor environmental situation.
• About 30-40 thousand people go missing every year
• Unpopularity of a healthy lifestyle.

Major threats to life

Slide 9

Family demographic development

• Predominance of nuclear families
• The number of families with one parent is growing, and the so-called "maternal family"
• There are few families of complex composition. In 1994 - 5% of the total. Basically, these are a married couple with children, one of whom is married. Households with three or more married couples accounted for 0.1% of all families in 1994.
• There are differences between urban and rural families. In rural areas, there is a higher proportion of older married couples whose children live separately. The city has a higher proportion of families with only one parent.
• The average number of children per family is decreasing (1.3). The number of large families is decreasing. Approximately 2/3 of families have children, and the rest are either young spouses or older couples.

Slide 10

The country has entered a period of massive prevalence of small families. More and more families are focusing on one child and postponing his birth. The proportion of children born outside of a registered marriage is constantly growing. In 1994 it was 19.6%, and in 2003 it was already 29.7% of the total number of newborns.

Russia ranks first in the list of 40 industrialized countries in the world in terms of the number of abortions 206 per 100 births

Slide 11

Migration situation

• Russia is in second place (after the United States) in terms of the number of legal and illegal immigrants living in the country. According to UN experts, there are more than 13 million people in Russia. - 9% of the population.
• The damage from the labor activity of illegal immigrants is 200 billion rubles.
• In 2007, the number of legal arrivals to Russia was six times greater than the number of those leaving. According to the Federal Migration Service, immigration covered 71% of the natural population decline in the Russian Federation.
• In 2006, a law was adopted that significantly simplifies labor migration from states whose citizens enter Russia without visas.

Slide 12

• To maintain the population at the same level, it is necessary to attract at least 700 thousand immigrants per year, and to maintain the size of the working-age population - at least a million per year. In order to maintain economic growth and growth in the well-being of the population, Russia must accept at least 20 million immigrants by the middle of the century.
• Attracting unskilled migrants does not contribute to increasing GDP per capita. Economic growth in the long term can only occur due to increased labor productivity - that is, due to increased qualifications, increased wages and the purchasing power of the population, and not their decrease.

Two views on attracting immigrants:

Slide 13

• A characteristic feature of modern emigration is a high intellectual level - a massive “brain drain”. In the 1990s, Russia lost a third of its intellectual potential, and these losses continue to increase. There was, in fact, a “transplant” of a number of scientific schools to the West.
• Since 1992, due to the emigration of highly qualified personnel, Russia has lost, on average, one annual budget every 5–7 years due to direct losses alone.
• Subsequently, according to the Education Commission of the Council of Europe, Russia's losses due to the emigration of scientists and specialists, taking into account lost profits, reached an average of about 50–60 billion dollars per year. The total damage is 1 trillion. dollars.

EMIGRATION

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The estimated figure for the total emigration from Russia is approximately 4.5–5 million people (1917 – 2004)

1992–2004 2,249,619 people left Russia.

According to some forecasts, the number of emigrants who moved only to Western countries may reach by 2015. 7–11 million people

Over the past five years, a new group of potential emigrants has formed in Russia. More than 2.5 million people who purchased houses and apartments in different countries.

Slide 15

In 2010, about 95 thousand people left the country. Most of them retained their citizenship.

Slide 16

“Silent expansion” on the part of densely populated China in relation to the Far East

According to professional demographers, there are from 30 thousand to 200 thousand Chinese in Russia’s Far East, which is not enough for “demographic expansion.”

Slide 17

According to the 2002 census, 73% of Russians are urban residents, 27% are rural. More than 60 percent of Russia's population is concentrated in three federal districts - Central (26%), Volga (22%) and Southern (16%).

The smallest is the Far Eastern Federal District - 4.6% of the population.

A third of Russia’s residents are concentrated in the largest “millionaire cities”: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Chelyabinsk, Rostov-on-Don, Ufa.

Slide 18

The census recorded an excess of the number of elderly people over the number of children:

• 18.1% of the population are children
• 61.3% - working age population
• 20.5% are of disabled age.

Slide 19

During the 20th century, Russia experienced several demographic crises:

• World War I (4.5 million) The difference between the expected and actual population of Russia by 1918 was 75 million people.
• Civil War (2.1 million)
• Famine in the USSR 1932-1933 (about 7 million)
• Period of collectivization and mass repressions (2.5 – 4 million)
• World War II (27 million)
• Post-war famine (about 2 million, birth rate decreased by 9%)
• Economic crisis of the 1990s

Slide 20

According to VTsIOM in 2008, our fellow citizens considered the causes of demographic problems in Russia

• low standard of living, high prices 20%
• small child benefits 19%
• insufficient number of child care institutions 17%,
• poor medical care 13%
• problem with housing 8%
• paid medicine, education, expensive kindergartens, treatment, baby food - 7% each

Slide 21

DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OF MEDICAL SERVICE AND DISEASE PREVENTION

• INCREASING INTEREST OF ENTREPRENEURS IN IMPROVING WORKING CONDITIONS
• SMART IMMIGRATION POLICY AND REDUCING EMIGRATION
• ATTRACTING THE POPULATION TO AREAS OF GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE
• CONCEPT OF DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE RF UNTIL 2015

Slide 22

HOMEWORK

§17, QUESTION 2 – orally;

Prepare for the test work in § 13 – 17.

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Description of the presentation by individual slides:

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GBPOU VO "Novousmansky Multidisciplinary Technical School". Current demographic situation in the Russian Federation. Prepared by: social studies teacher N.A. Vostrikova. 2016

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“...Not only science, but also politics, religion... must put the problem of population at the forefront. Its oblivion constitutes one of the errors of thinking...” D.I. Mendeleev

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Lesson objectives: Consider the current demographic situation in Russia; Understand the problems and causes of the demographic crisis in the country; Analyze ways to solve and overcome demographic problems in the Russian Federation.

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DEMOGRAPHY (Greek demos - people, grafo - writing) is the science of the laws of population reproduction in the socio-historical conditionality of this process.

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Demographic indicators are the most reliable indicators of social life. They reflect the most profound trends of ongoing changes in the social sphere of society.

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From what sources do we learn about population size? The population census is the main source of data concerning the population size and its distribution throughout the Russian Federation. Based on the census results, one can judge the quality of life of the population not only of the entire country, but also of individual regions.

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Task: Let’s compare the results of the last two population censuses in our country. Describe the main trends in population changes in the Russian Federation and formulate the problem. Thousand people Per 1000 population Born/died Born/died 2002 2010 2002 2010 Total population 145167 142857 9.7/16.2 12.6/14.4 Urban population 106429 105314 Rural population 38738 37543

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Demographic crisis - low rates of birth rate, death rate and, accordingly, natural increase. A demographic crisis can be understood as both population decline and overpopulation. In the first case, this is a situation that develops in a country or region when the birth rate falls below the level of simple population replacement, as well as below the mortality rate. This is the situation currently developing in Russia. In the case of overpopulation, a demographic crisis is understood as a discrepancy between the population of a territory and its ability to provide residents with vital resources. The demographic crisis in the Russian Federation is a deep disruption of the reproduction of the Russian population, threatening its existence. The emergence of the crisis dates back to the early 1990s.

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Reasons: World War I (1914-1918), Civil War (1917-1922) Famine 1932-1933 period of collectivization and mass repression (1930-1953) World War II, deportations of peoples, post-war famine Economic crisis of the 1990s According to demographer Anatoly Vishnevsky, the total direct and indirect demographic losses of Russia over the 20th century as a result of wars, famines, repressions, economic and social upheavals are estimated at 140-150 million people

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As a result, for the second time in three years, the birth rate throughout the country decreased. According to operational data from Rosstat, the number of births in 2014 was estimated at 1.947 million people (the final number was 1.943 million), in 2015 - 1.944 million. One of the key factors influencing the birth rate - registered marriages - is also declining. The number of marriages per 1,000 people reached its highest level in 2011 since 2000 and has been declining since then. Over the period 2011-2015, this indicator decreased the most in Ingushetia, the Altai Republic and Chechnya. If you look at the country as a whole, the number of marriages per 1000 people in 2015 was comparable to the value almost ten years ago - 2006.

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Excerpt from the article 20 years have passed, the situation has changed, Russian citizens began to give birth more and die less, but the indicators existing today are not enough to maintain the demographic picture at the proper level, and in 20-30 years it may look completely depressing. This is the main thesis of the report prepared by the working group on family policy under the government of the Russian Federation. Deputy Director of the Department of Demographic Policy and Social Protection of the Population of the Ministry of Labor Elena Strakhova said that today we have a very good result thanks to measures to protect health and support families with children taken in 2006-2007. “But difficult years await us due to an unfavorable gender and age structure and an aging population,” said Elena Strakhova. “Based on these risks, we need to think about what to do next.”

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On average, 3,616 marriages and 1,534 divorces are registered daily in the Russian Federation, leaving 1,288 children without one parent. What are the motives for divorce?

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Depopulation is a systematic decrease in the absolute population of a country or territory as a result of narrowed population reproduction, when subsequent generations are numerically smaller than previous ones (mortality exceeds birth rate, high emigration, there are circumstances that cause large losses of people - for example, war).

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The social consequences of depopulation are associated with the prospect of a reduction in labor potential, economic activity of the population, and its aging. According to the census, the working age population (men - 16-59 years old, women - 16-54 years old) was 61%, below working age - 18%, over working age - 21%.

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Demographic aging of the population is an increase in the proportion of elderly and old people in the total population. Currently, the share of people aged 65 years and older in the Russian population is 13%. According to the UN scale, a population is considered old if the proportion of a given age exceeds 7%. According to forecasts by the Russian Academy of Sciences, by 2016, elderly people over 60 years of age will already make up 20% of the total number of Russians, and children under 15 years old will make up only 17%. The aging of the population in the near future may have a negative impact on the development of the country's economy. After 2007, the workload per able-bodied citizen of the Russian Federation will begin to increase and by 2020 will return to the 1995 level, reaching a new historical maximum (the first was in 1960-1965) no earlier than 2035. A situation in which there is one dependent per worker is expected only after 2045-2050.

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Results of population surveys According to VTsIOM (All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion) in 2008, our fellow citizens considered the main problems of motherhood and childhood in Russia: low standard of living, high prices (20%) small child benefits (19%) 17% complain about an insufficient number of children educational institutions 13% - poor medical care 8% consider housing a significant problem. Less often, citizens of the Russian Federation indicate unemployment and lack of attention from the state (4% each), the problem of homelessness (3%), alcoholism (1%) and bureaucracy (0.4%). 27% found it difficult to answer. In 2009 in Russia, the distribution of women by the number of children born by age 50 was as follows: the share of childless women was about 16%, the share of women who gave birth to 1 child during their life, among all women (who gave birth and those who did not give birth) was 35% who gave birth two children - 34%, 3 or more - 15%.

Demographic situation in Russia Since 1992, the birth rate in Russia has fallen below the replacement level and is now, according to various sources, from 1.4 to 1.6 children per woman. Depopulation has begun, or, what is the same thing, the extinction of the country. The minimum birth rate (1.3 children per woman) occurred in 2002; the current increase in birth rates is associated with the arrival of the last large young generation of the 80s, with the contribution of traditionally large families of immigrants from the Caucasus and Central Asia, and with the success of state demographic policy. In 2009, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, the population of Russia stabilized. As of 2010, according to the census, the permanent population in Russia is 142.8 million people. Since 2002, it has fallen by 2.3 million people.

Russia is the only country in the largest developed countries where the population has been declining over the past decade. According to the UN forecast, if the current demographic situation in Russia, mortality and birth rates continue, by the middle of this century the population of Russia will decrease from 142.8 to 101 million people.

The demographic situation in Russia at the end of the 20th century was characterized by a simultaneous drop in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate. Currently, the birth rate is slowly increasing and the mortality rate is decreasing. Nevertheless, the depopulation of Russia's indigenous peoples continues. The main reason for the depopulation of modern Russia is the decline in the birth rate below the replacement level. For example, over the years The reproduction level of the Russian population decreased by a total of 43.4%, including by 43.395% due to a decrease in the birth rate, and by 0.005% due to an increase in mortality. If we take the overall decrease in the net coefficient as 100%, then 99.9999% of this decrease is due to a fall in the birth rate, and only 0.0001% is due to an increase in mortality. The current increase in the birth rate and record values ​​of the birth rate are still very far from the 2.15-2.3 children per woman required for the survival of the country over her entire life.

Before this, for many millennia, in all countries of the human world, the birth rate remained at a very high level. Large families in Russia were commonplace until recently. High mortality, especially child mortality, meant that until the beginning of the 20th century in Russia, the majority of children born died before reaching reproductive age, and, nevertheless, the population was limited only by the area under crops, that is, by the amount of food available.

The demographic situation in Russia in the 19th and early 20th centuries was completely different than it is now. Over the period since 2010, the population growth rate was 1.49%, and in some provinces, for example, Ekaterinoslav, it reached 3.0% per year. Over the period, the birth rate in Russia decreased from 5.02% to 4.31%. The mortality rate during this period changed from 3.49% to 2.74%. Over the 100 years from 1800 to 1900, the mid-annual natural population growth in Russia, with such a high mortality rate, was 1.03%, as a result of which the population more than doubled.

Depopulation began at the end of the 20th century, in 1992. The decline in fertility in Europe began in the second half of the 19th century. It was then that a trend arose that led to the current demographic situation in Russia. From period to period, the birth rate in Russia fell from 5.01 to 4.4%, i.e. by 12%, in Germany from 3.69 to 2.9% (by 21.4%), in England from 3.48 to 2.47% (by 29%), in Sweden from 3.39 to 2.43 % (by 28.3%), in France from 2.69 to 1.91 (by 29%). The birth rate in Russia at that time was 130% higher than in France. Now the birth rate in Russia is only 0.66%.

Back in 1927, in the Moscow region, a middle family had 7 children. Now the birth rate is falling all over the world. This applies to all countries, including countries with high birth rates, such as China or Afghanistan. In a number of countries, the birth rate is now lower than in Russia. For example, in Hong Kong it is only 1 child per woman, although Hong Kong is populated by Chinese. The same is true in Japan, although there is no Russian excess mortality rate there.

The demographic crisis in Russia is part of the global demographic crisis, and its reason is the transition from a patriarchal society, in which parents were economically interested in children as workers, to capitalism, in which the workers are strangers, and children become unwanted dependents. A market economy with a non-market, patriarchal way of producing people, children being free for society while their cost to parents is high - this is the reason for the depopulation of industrial society.

Thus, the reason for the demographic situation in Russia and China, in Germany and Somalia, in Japan and Afghanistan is the same. This reason is the profitability of office work. Where it is negative, the birth and raising of children results in losses for parents and leads to poverty, children are unwanted, they have a minimum of them, and the population decreases. Where it is positive, where children work for their parents and are a source of wealth, families have large families and the country's population is growing rapidly.

In the Russian Federation in 2000, the mortality rate was 15.3 people per 1000 people. Among the most common causes of death, experts identify circulatory diseases, cancer, cardiovascular diseases and accidents. Alcoholism and drug addiction have a negative impact on the life expectancy of the Russian population. These causes of death are becoming noticeably younger. The male mortality rate is 4 times higher than the female mortality rate and 2-4 times higher than in economically developed countries.

In connection with depopulation, there is an aging of the population, which in turn gives rise to additional requirements for the development of social security and medical care for the elderly. Even in economically developed countries, with an increasing proportion of older people. Even in economically developed countries, as the share of older people in the population pyramid increases, governments are forced to increase the retirement age. Another side of the population aging process is the exacerbation of the problems of loneliness of older people, their alienation from younger generations.

The decline in the birth rate has a negative impact on the infantilization of the younger generation. Excessive custody of children, common in small families, increases the risk of raising an egoist focused on his own interests. Lacks a sense of responsibility and independence.

The state of the family in modern Russia Based on the static dynamics of recent decades, experts predict noticeable changes for us in the not so distant future. In the 90s, marriage statistics in Russia looked good. By this time, a large generation, born in the prosperous 80s, had grown up. Thus, at the ages of maximum marriage from 20 to 30 years, the total population increased compared to 1994 (local minimum) by 4.9 million, or by a quarter. In the relatively stable 2000s, marriage as a social institution began to crack at the seams. Attitudes towards the state-established form of cohabitation are changing noticeably. The unspoken rule of forming marriages by the age of 25, common throughout the 20th century, has remained on the sidelines of history. Referring to the 2002 census, demographers claim that by the age of thirty, over 40 percent of men and one in four women in Russia had never been married. This refers to an officially registered marriage.

Among the motives for divorce, one of the first places is occupied by drunkenness or drug addiction of one of the spouses, then there are conflicts and scandals, bad relations with the relatives of the husband or wife and their interference in the relations of the young family, infidelity, and sexual incompatibility. A common feature of the above is the lack of socio-psychological preparedness among spouses for marriage and fulfilling social roles.

Motives for marriage among young people: love, calculation, stereotypes. External attractiveness is not in the first place. The female ideal is focused on enterprising, capable of providing for a family financially, tactful men with a sense of humor without bad habits. Men see the ideal of a woman in fidelity, femininity, modesty, homeliness and good character.

To change the demographic situation in Russia, a fundamentally new pension reform is needed. Its essence boils down to the participation of parents in the income of their own children, the privatization of children’s pension contributions, and the removal of the Pension Fund from the chain of associates between children and their parents. At the same time, children again begin to bring income to their parents, and having many children becomes economically feasible even in a market economy. As a result of the action of this fundamental factor, within a few years the birth rate will again increase to 3-4 children per woman, and within 100 years it will return to the level of 7 children per woman that existed in Russia 100 years ago.

Other approaches provide a temporary effect (for example, significant payments for the birth of children in Scandinavia led only to a shift in the birth calendar, i.e. parents rushed to give birth to planned children earlier, until payments were canceled, but the number of planned children did not increase and, following an increase in the birth rate, deep failure. A similar phenomenon is developing now in connection with payments of “maternity capital”). Some of the approaches may increase the birth rate (for example, Zhirinovsky’s initiative for the state to purchase “abandoned” children from women planning to have an abortion, or Mironov’s proposal to hire surrogate mothers to give birth to children needed by the state, but unnecessary for parents), leading to an increase in orphanhood and exacerbating the problems of orphanages . In the long term, the attraction of migrants leads not only to the replacement of the indigenous population by newcomers, but also to the replacement of culture. It should be noted that the import of orphans, which is proposed by the same Zhirinovsky, will not lead to the replacement of Russian culture with a foreign culture.

Demographic

situation in Russia

and problems

modern family

PLAN 1. Demographic problems. 2. Trends in the development of the modern family in the Russian Federation. 3. State demographic policy. Demography is the science of the patterns of population reproduction in the socio-historical and social conditionality of this process.

• Demography is the science of the patterns of population reproduction in the socio-historical and social conditionality of this process.

Demographic crisis

(depopulation )

A sharp decline in population.

Population explosion"

A sharp increase in population.

Demographic crises in Russia in the 20th century.

Population dynamics of Russia: Exercise: analyze the chart data:

• Family- a small group based on marriage or consanguinity, whose members are bound by a common life, mutual assistance, moral and legal responsibility

Modern

Traditional

Multigenerational

Reasons for divorce?

• Drunkenness and drug addiction
• Conflicts and scandals
• Interference of relatives in relationships
• Cheating husband or wife
• Sexual incompatibility

In these motives, one can identify a common feature - the spouses’ lack of proper socio-psychological preparation for marriage and fulfilling family roles

• Increased problems preventing
marriage: lack of housing, decent income; insufficient socio-psychological readiness for marriage, psychological overload of partners.
• Declining economic role of men in the family.
• Reduced effectiveness of interaction between generations in the family.

• Reducing the leading position of the family in the socialization of individuals;
• A change in the position of a woman in the family, due to the growth of her authority in society;
• Reducing the number of patriarchal families;
• Development of a partner-type family;
• The destruction of the multigenerational family, the predominance of the nuclear family;
• An increase in the number of actual, but not legally formalized family unions;
• Increase in the number of divorces, remarriages, single-parent families, and the number of abandoned children

Increase in the number of registered marriages

Increasing age of marriage

Increasing age of parents at the time of the birth of their first child

The number of women exceeds the number of men

Rising number of divorces

Declining average family size

Trends in family development in modern Russia

1. Replacement of traditional roles played by husband and wife;

2. Reducing the value of a family with children, the unity of all family generations;

3. Deviant behavior in the family is increasing - alcohol and drug abuse, family violence;

4. The family ceases to depend on social norms and sanctions (laws, morals, customs, public opinion, traditions, rituals) and increasingly depends on interpersonal relationships, mutual affection, mutual understanding;

• Married couple with children
• Registered marriage.
• There are two workers in the family.
• The average number of family members is 3.6 people.

Common deviations from the ideal family model

Incomplete family group, in which one of the members is initially missing (single mother with a child)

A broken family due to the intentional departure of one of the spouses; annulment, separation, divorce

A family experiencing a crisis caused by external events: the death of one of the spouses, imprisonment

A family is “like an empty shell” when spouses live together but maintain only minimal contact with each other

• Population policy– purposeful activities of the state in the field of regulation of population reproduction processes.

• Modernization of the social protection system for families (compensation for expenses associated with the birth and upbringing of a child in the first years of his life) - "Birth certificates";
• Fertility stimulation - "Maternal capital".
• Development and implementation of housing construction programs for youth: mortgage lending, subsidies for young families, ...

• Increasing working-age population
• Population aging
3. Infantilization of the younger generation 4. Strengthening ties between generations 5. Reducing the number of abandoned children 6. Reducing the number of traditional families